Election Model

Updated October 30th, 2016 at 9:09 am EDT


The model is a combination of individual statewide polling averages and a demographic model based on historical voting patterns adjusted to current nationwide polling. Uncertainty is assumed to double when projecting every eight weeks into the future, and the model currently assumes the probability of a major third party candidacy is zero. Individual state probabilities (including congressional districts for NE and ME) are then included in a stochastic model (N = 10,000) for the Electoral College.